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A dynamic model for incidents on the Dutch inland waterways

Scholten, T.W. (2012) A dynamic model for incidents on the Dutch inland waterways. Master's Thesis / Essay, Mathematics.

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Abstract

What are the delays, number of infeasible routes and costs due to a broken lock or vessel accident during a given length of time on the Dutch inland waterways. If needed only a region of influence will be calculated and there will be a separation of container and bulk. Multiple analyzes are made of different incident with time stretching from the incidents till the situation returns to normal again to determine the robustness of the system. The expectation is that the flow of goods will increase in the upcoming years. To avoid extra traffic on the road and to achieve the environment targets a giant growth is needed of inland navigation. Due to the arrival of the "tweede maasvlakte" the number of transported containers will quadruple between now and 2035. The growth of inland waterway transport can cause an increase in the number of bottlenecks and the possibility of an accident if capacity cannot accommodate the expected growth. The consequences of such an incident (broken down locks and vessels that got stuck) have been unknown until now. This is why a model is built to analyze the congestion on the Dutch waterways in the next 30 years. Available data dated from 2004 extrapolated to 2008 about the network and ship route intensity is available from the BIVAS model. Different papers based on scenarios help to provide additional information and useful data for extrapolation. On a large scale the BIVAS model and on a local scale the SIVAK model exists. The focus of the new model lies somewhere in between these models. The additional value of this new model is that it is able to analyze a small window of time and the dynamical behavior. This means ships will take into account what other ships are doing. Depending on the interest of the user and calculation speed a set of vessel types can be chosen and simulated without all other types. The scenarios that are evaluated are selected by the user and both container and bulk transportation can be analyzed. The implementation techniques make use of a Markov model where advantages and downsides will be evaluated to see how well this model solves the problem. In order to draw conclusions about the results Monte-Carlo simulations will be used and the results will be visualized using a map of the Netherlands. Within one scenario the time of delay due to taking an alternative route and the amount of vessels that have nowhere to go will be specified. The duration of the simulation will be from the moment the incident takes place till the time the situation returns to normal again. This normal state will be defined using a simulation without an incident. The model assumes a static initial state which means that seasons, water levels, ice and intensities in high and low seasons are neglected.

Item Type: Thesis (Master's Thesis / Essay)
Degree programme: Mathematics
Thesis type: Master's Thesis / Essay
Language: English
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2018 07:50
Last Modified: 15 Feb 2018 07:50
URI: http://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/10533

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