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Beliefs of traders in prediction markets

Krant, Xabi (2019) Beliefs of traders in prediction markets. Bachelor's Thesis, Artificial Intelligence.


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Prediction markets are a relatively new tool for aggregating dispersed personal information. The idea is that the price in these markets can directly be used as a prediction for an event. This research uses an agent-based model to test whether the price is a reflection of the beliefs of traders. The results shows that the price is a direct indicator of general patterns in the beliefs of traders, but only weakly correlates with exact differences. This research also sheds new light on why some markets do not produce trades. All in all this research supports the idea that prediction markets are able to aggregate dispersed information, with the price as a direct measure for this information.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor's Thesis)
Supervisor nameSupervisor E mail
Degree programme: Artificial Intelligence
Thesis type: Bachelor's Thesis
Language: English
Date Deposited: 02 Mar 2019
Last Modified: 04 Mar 2019 09:57

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