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A toy model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Pomstra, Gertjan (2020) A toy model for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Master's Thesis / Essay, Mathematics.

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Abstract

The ENSO model by Timmerman and Jin (2002) models the El Niño-Southern Oscillation using 3 prognostic differential equations. In this thesis, we use one of the trajectories of this ENSO model and consider a Poincaré section given by the local maxima of eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures. The relation of the resulting sequence of values can be approximated with 1 dimensional maps, with which we will examine bifurcations, snap-back repellers and predictability of extreme events. Lastly, we conclude that employing a toy model can be useful since it reduces, for example, time and calculation capacity while we still obtain similar results for the chosen variable.

Item Type: Thesis (Master's Thesis / Essay)
Supervisor name: Sterk, A.E. and Wubs, F.W.
Degree programme: Mathematics
Thesis type: Master's Thesis / Essay
Language: English
Date Deposited: 01 Jul 2020 11:22
Last Modified: 01 Jul 2020 11:22
URI: https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/22329

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