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An investigation into the impact of temperature on the rise and spread of COVID-19 in the Netherlands

Greengrass, Sarah Jane (2021) An investigation into the impact of temperature on the rise and spread of COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Bachelor's Thesis, Mathematics.

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Abstract

This paper uses an ARMA model to investigate the rise and spread of COVID-19 in the Netherlands per province. The model allows the study of the effect of temperature on the rise of COVID-19. A total of four models are looked at in this paper, a base model which uses purely the number of infections at time (t − 1) to predict the number of infections at time t, a model which includes temperature and lockdown measures as independent variables, a model which lags these independent variable a suitable number of days and finally a model which includes temperature and lockdown measures as dummy independent variables. Model selection is then assessed by AIC and BIC values. The results suggested that temperature below a certain temperature can be seen to increase the number of infections but only for certain provinces.

Item Type: Thesis (Bachelor's Thesis)
Supervisor name: Grzegorczyk, M.A. and Besselink, B.
Degree programme: Mathematics
Thesis type: Bachelor's Thesis
Language: English
Date Deposited: 07 May 2021 07:48
Last Modified: 07 May 2021 07:48
URI: https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/24369

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