Jansma, Marnix (2020) Belief Elicitation In Prediction Markets. Bachelor's Thesis, Artificial Intelligence.
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Abstract
Prediction markets have increasingly received interest as a tool for information aggregation from both researchers and corporations due to their utility in forecasting of various types of (binary) events. Some models have been proposed and put under scrutiny. This paper considers a new model and looks to give insight on the ability of prediction markets to stabilise and elicit information on the underlying beliefs of participants, as well as the robustness of this information given various market parameters such as market size. It uses a software implementation of the model to generate simulated data. The results indicate that price stabilisation is almost certain and that if some conditions are met, the markets are able to provide very accurate information on their participants.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor's Thesis) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Grossi, D. |
| Degree programme: | Artificial Intelligence |
| Thesis type: | Bachelor's Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Feb 2020 10:53 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Feb 2020 10:53 |
| URI: | https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/21549 |
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