Bruinsma, R (2020) Using Poisson regression to model football scores and exploit inaccuracies in the online betting market. Bachelor's Thesis, Mathematics.
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Abstract
This paper aims to develop a parametric model that indirectly predicts the outcome of football matches by directly predicting the number of goals both teams will make in a match. The model is motivated by a desire to exploit potential inefficiencies in the online betting market. It builds upon existing work on statistical modelling in sports prediction. The theory behind the mod- els used is described, as well as the model selection procedures for selecting the best model. Using historical match data, it finds an optimal prediction method, based on a Poisson regression model, that gives rise to probabilities on match outcomes for assigned matches. These probabilities are compared to the bookmakers odds for the corresponding matches. When the model gives more favourable probabilities, a bet is placed, and it is found that this strategy was profitable employing it on the 2018/2019 Eredivisie season.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor's Thesis) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Grzegorczyk, M.A. |
| Degree programme: | Mathematics |
| Thesis type: | Bachelor's Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Jun 2020 11:14 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Jun 2020 11:14 |
| URI: | https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/22004 |
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