Greengrass, Sarah Jane (2021) An investigation into the impact of temperature on the rise and spread of COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Bachelor's Thesis, Mathematics.
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Abstract
This paper uses an ARMA model to investigate the rise and spread of COVID-19 in the Netherlands per province. The model allows the study of the effect of temperature on the rise of COVID-19. A total of four models are looked at in this paper, a base model which uses purely the number of infections at time (t − 1) to predict the number of infections at time t, a model which includes temperature and lockdown measures as independent variables, a model which lags these independent variable a suitable number of days and finally a model which includes temperature and lockdown measures as dummy independent variables. Model selection is then assessed by AIC and BIC values. The results suggested that temperature below a certain temperature can be seen to increase the number of infections but only for certain provinces.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Bachelor's Thesis) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Grzegorczyk, M.A. and Besselink, B. |
| Degree programme: | Mathematics |
| Thesis type: | Bachelor's Thesis |
| Language: | English |
| Date Deposited: | 07 May 2021 07:48 |
| Last Modified: | 07 May 2021 07:48 |
| URI: | https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/24369 |
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