Mantouw, Noah (2026) Housing Development Pathways in Zambia (2025--2050). Master's Research Project 1, Energy and Environmental Sciences.
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Abstract
Rapid urbanisation and population growth are placing increasing pressure on housing systems across Sub-Saharan Africa. Within this regional context, Zambia provides a representative case of these challenges, particularly with respect to housing adequacy, informality, energy demand, and resource use. Understanding the long-term impacts of alternative housing development pathways is therefore essential for sustainable urban development. This thesis assesses the long-term impacts of alternative housing development pathways through a scenario analysis of the housing sector using the iSDG model calibrated specifically for Zambia. Five housing development pathways were explored: a baseline scenario, Rapid Formal Expansion, Sustainable Compact development, Upgrading Informal Settlements, and an Informal Boom scenario. The analysis examines housing adequacy, building energy demand, material use, and interactions among the SDGs to identify synergies and trade-offs. The results show that no single housing development pathway performs best across environmental, social, and economic dimensions. Formal housing pathways improve housing adequacy and access to basic services, but are associated with increased material use and emissions. Upgrading informal settlements reduces the housing deficit but does not achieve the overall gains observed under formal pathways, while continued growth of informal settlements leads to declining access to basic services and increased slum prevale.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master's Research Project 1) |
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| Supervisor name: | Pradhan, P. |
| Degree programme: | Energy and Environmental Sciences |
| Thesis type: | Master's Research Project 1 |
| Language: | English |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Feb 2026 07:15 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Feb 2026 07:15 |
| URI: | https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/37229 |
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