Hoekman, Jip (2026) System Dynamics Modelling of Groundwater Management and Drought Risk in the Netherlands. Master's Research Project 1, Energy and Environmental Sciences.
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Abstract
Water availability is becoming an increasing concern in the Netherlands due to climate change, periods of drought, and growing pressure on available freshwater resources. Groundwater plays an important role in supporting domestic, agricultural, and industrial water use, while sufficient water must also remain available to maintain natural ecosystems. This research investigates how groundwater withdrawal in the Netherlands can be managed sustainably while balancing environmental, economic, and social objectives. In addition, the suitability of the Integrated Sustainable Development Goals (iSDG) System Dynamics model for representing the Dutch groundwater system is assessed. The existing iSDG model was expanded with a groundwater cycle that includes seasonal rainfall, evaporation, groundwater withdrawal, ecological water demand, and groundwater flows. KNMI climate scenarios were implemented up to 2050 to investigate the potential effects of future climatic conditions. Different water-withdrawal reduction scenarios were also analysed. The Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+), groundwater storage, and nature satisfaction were used as key indicators for evaluating the sustainability of the system. The results show that water stress is particularly relevant during summer and autumn and that the drier KNMI scenarios can further increase pressure on groundwater resources. However, reductions in water withdrawal have a considerably larger positive effect. Under the main policy scenario, the summer WEI+ decreases from approximately 17.3% in 2025 to around 11.3% by 2050, compared with approximately 16.8% in the baseline. This indicates that demand-side measures can substantially improve the resilience of the Dutch water system. The research therefore supports a more preventive approach to groundwater management, with clearer national boundaries combined with locally appropriate implementation. The iSDG model is useful for exploring long-term trends, climate scenarios, and policy interventions, but limitations in data availability, regional representation, and seasonal integration restrict its use for detailed local predictions. It is therefore most suitable as a tool for exploring system-wide developments and interactions rather than predicting exact future groundwater conditions.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Master's Research Project 1) |
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| Supervisor name: | Pradhan, P. and Kluck, T. |
| Degree programme: | Energy and Environmental Sciences |
| Thesis type: | Master's Research Project 1 |
| Language: | English |
| Date Deposited: | 12 Aug 2026 10:43 |
| Last Modified: | 12 Aug 2026 10:43 |
| URI: | https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/37501 |
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