Strategic Planning for Rail System Design

Petkova, B.N. (2007) Strategic Planning for Rail System Design. Master's Thesis / Essay, Industrial Engineering and Management.

Text Master_Thesis_Petkova.pdf - Published Version Restricted to RUG campus only Download (2MB)

Abstract

In Europe there is an increased political support for building High Speed Rail connections. Spain for example will invest over 100 billion euro in the next decade in new lines. While there are plans to build new expensive HSR connections, all throughout Europe railways are struggling financially. Financial performance of railways deviates a lot from the prognoses. In most cases, costs exceed prognoses by far and demand is less than what is forecasted. A plea can be made for a flexible design of the railway system which depends on developments of the key variables in the system and other modes. The logic behind this is that the financial performance of the system can be improved if there is a pre-specified plan for every possible future scenario. We have shown through reasoning in other fields and a case example for the railways that having a flexible plan for building and operating railway systems can have major financial benefits over the fixed system design. The theory applied in this thesis is known as Dynamic Strategic Planning (DSP), of which Real Options Analysis is a large part. Although there are great theoretical benefits to flexible planning on a strategic level, there are some pitfalls that might dampen the expected system performance. Based on DSP theory, applications thereof, and an analysis of the European and Portuguese situation in the railways, advice is given if flexible planning can help improve the financial performance of the current high speed rail plans in Portugal.

Item Type:	Thesis (Master's Thesis / Essay)
Degree programme:	Industrial Engineering and Management
Thesis type:	Master's Thesis / Essay
Language:	English
Date Deposited:	15 Feb 2018 07:28
Last Modified:	15 Feb 2018 07:28
URI:	https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/8361

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