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Predictability of extreme events in one-dimensional maps

Vader, B. (2018) Predictability of extreme events in one-dimensional maps. Master's Thesis / Essay, Mathematics.

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Abstract

The predictability of extremes in dynamical models can be compared to that of non-extremes. Past research has evaluated this predictability using methods based either on statistics or on dynamical systems theory, leading to different conclusions. This thesis assesses predictability in the context of dynamical systems, by studying distributions of finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs). These FTLEs measure error growth rates. The predictability of the extreme is quantified by comparing the distribution of FTLEs of initial conditions leading to the extreme, to the distribution of FTLEs of all other initial conditions. We focus the research on one-dimensional maps. Three maps are studied in detail, through the combination of an analytical approach and a numerical approximation. We come to the conclusion that the predictability of extremes depends on both the map and the definition of the extreme. Finally, we discuss the validity and the implications of the method we used.

Item Type: Thesis (Master's Thesis / Essay)
Degree programme: Mathematics
Thesis type: Master's Thesis / Essay
Language: English
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2018 08:35
Last Modified: 15 Feb 2018 08:35
URI: http://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/16424

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