Disselhorst, Gijs (2021) Optimal control of epidemics - Analysis of optimal government intervention-, testing-, and vaccination strategies. Research Project, Industrial Engineering and Management.
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Abstract
We seek for optimal control strategies for the implementation of government intervention-, testing-, and vaccination strategies during a disease outbreak. The existing SIDARE model, which stands for Susceptible (S), Infected Undetected (I), Infected Detected (D), Acutely symptomatic or Threatened (A), Recovered (R), and Extinct (E), is modified by adding a compartment for vaccination (V), creating the SIDAREV model. An optimal control problem is formulated to minimize the threatened and deceased population and the overall costs. Model parameters for simulating the COVID-19 pandemic have been used. Control inputs for affecting the infection rate, testing rate, and vaccination rate are proposed. Pontryagin's maximum principle is applied to determine the optimal controls. Consequently, the optimal strategies for the control inputs have been determined. By applying optimal control strategies, it appears that the peak of threatened individuals can be flattened and pushed further into the future and that the number of deceased individuals at the end of a disease outbreak will be reduced.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Research Project) |
|---|---|
| Supervisor name: | Monshizadeh Naini, N. and Cao, M. |
| Degree programme: | Industrial Engineering and Management |
| Thesis type: | Research Project |
| Language: | English |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Mar 2021 10:10 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Mar 2021 10:10 |
| URI: | https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/24133 |
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