Excess mortality and change in life expectancy due to COVID-19 in Norway using ARIMA models

Leeser, Sarah (2023) Excess mortality and change in life expectancy due to COVID-19 in Norway using ARIMA models. Bachelor's Thesis, Mathematics.

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Abstract

This bachelor project investigates the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality and life expectancy in Norway using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Initially, mortality data was age-standardized from 1986 to 2022 compared to Norway’s 2010 population. The best-fitting ARIMA(p,d,q) model was determined through the ADF test, ACF/PACF test and BIC criterion, enabling mortality forecasts for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Excess mortality rates indicated a substantial spike in 2022, suggesting a potential link to COVID-19. Yet, the evidence remains inconclusive. Life expectancy, both at birth and 18 years, showed modest declines in 2020 and 2021, with a more significant decrease observed in 2022. However, attributing these changes solely to COVID-19 lacks conclusive evidence. In summary, the results do not establish a direct causal link between excess mortality and changes in life expectancy due to COVID-19. This study is limited by the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the data on death certificates. Further investigation including a causality test is recommended.

Item Type:	Thesis (Bachelor's Thesis)
Supervisor name:	Trapman, J.P. and Krijnen, W.P.
Degree programme:	Mathematics
Thesis type:	Bachelor's Thesis
Language:	English
Date Deposited:	27 Nov 2023 09:16
Last Modified:	27 Nov 2023 09:16
URI:	https://fse.studenttheses.ub.rug.nl/id/eprint/31678

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